Scores vs SPY | 52-week percentile mapped to [−1, +1] | Oversold = opportunity Overbought = caution
Updated: 10/23/26 16:40 CT
Sectors — Absolute vs Relative Score (vs SPY)
Oversold+Out
Overbought+Out
Oversold+Under
Overbought+Under
Symbol
Name
Abs Score
Rel (SPY)
Chart
XLC
Communication Services
-0.93
-1.00
XLI
Industrials
-0.07
-0.97
XTN
Transportation
-0.02
-0.70
XLY
Consumer Discretionary
-0.15
-0.67
XLU
Utilities
-0.12
-0.54
XLRE
Real Estate
+0.08
-0.31
XLB
Materials
+0.65
-0.29
XLF
Financial
+0.55
-0.10
XLP
Consumer Staples
+0.79
-0.08
XLK
Technology
+0.50
+0.32
XLE
Energy
+1.00
+0.62
XLV
Health Care
+0.90
+0.94
Symbol
Name
Abs Score
Rel (SPY)
Chart
MDYG
Mid Cap Growth
+0.13
-0.94
VBK
Small Cap Growth
+0.10
-0.91
EFA
Non_US Dev. Mrkets
+0.40
-0.74
GDX
Gold Miners
-0.48
-0.73
MDY
Mid Cap 400
+0.28
-0.73
EEM
Emerging Markets
+0.04
-0.64
MTUM
Momentum
+0.04
-0.61
VEA
Developed Markets
+0.44
-0.58
IWM
Small Caps
+0.26
-0.58
TLT
20+ Year Treasury Bond
-0.23
-0.55
IBIT
Crypto
-0.21
-0.39
ARKK
Disruptive Tech
+0.26
-0.35
MDYV
Mid Cap Value
+0.48
-0.34
SPLV
Low Beta (Low Vol.)
+0.52
-0.32
MGK
Mega Cap Growth
+0.48
-0.28
SPHB
High Beta
+0.21
-0.28
VYM
High Dividend Yield
+0.70
-0.20
VBR
Small Cap Value
+0.63
-0.08
IVW
S&P 500 Growth
+0.49
-0.07
RSP
Equal Weight S&P 500
+0.75
+0.05
PKW
Buyback Achievers
+0.72
+0.45
VTV
Large Cap Value
+0.94
+0.56
VFQY
Vanguard U.S. Quality
+0.86
+0.62
How it works
−1.00−0.75−0.20Fair Value+0.20+0.75+1.00
← Oversold Could be a good time to increase holdingsOverbought → Could be a good time to reduce holdings
Note: Scores can stay extremely overbought or oversold for weeks. Patience is required.
Sector Styles
The market rotates between Defensives, Sensitives, and Cyclicals. This layout shows where momentum sits right now — trailing 3-month cumulative returns.
Overview
Defensives — XLV · XLP · XLU
Sensitives — XLK · XLI · XLC · XLE
Cyclicals — XLRE · XLF · XLY · XLB
Style Factors
Four styles in one view. When Beta, Growth, Value, and Safety are plotted together, the momentum leader becomes hard to miss.
Beta — SPHB · SPY · SPLV
Growth — MGK · IVW · IWF · QQQ
Safety — MTUM · QUAL · VYM · SPHD
Value — IWM · VBR · VTV · IWD
Click any line to highlight it and add its 25-year seasonal average to the Seasonality view — click again to remove it, or use Reset Selection to clear all.
Both charts share the same trading-day-of-year axis so the month markers line up.
YTD Performance rebased to 0% on Jan 1
Average Seasonality 25-year history
How to Use This Dashboard
This tool scores S&P 500 sector ETFs and US equity style/factor ETFs on two dimensions — Absolute Score and Relative Score (vs SPY) — to help identify which areas of the market are overbought or oversold, both in isolation and relative to the S&P 500.
What the Scores Mean
Each score maps to a range of −1.00 (extremely oversold) to +1.00 (extremely overbought), based on where the ETF's price sits within its trailing 52-week range.
Score Range
Reading
Interpretation
−1.00 to −0.60
Extremely Oversold
Deep in the lower end of 52-week range — potential value opportunity
−0.60 to −0.20
Oversold
Below midpoint — could be a good time to increase holdings
−0.20 to +0.20
Fair Value
Near the middle of its range — no strong signal
+0.20 to +0.60
Overbought
Above midpoint — could be a good time to trim
+0.60 to +1.00
Extremely Overbought
Near the top of 52-week range — extended, be cautious
Absolute vs Relative Score
Score
What It Measures
Example
Absolute Score
Where the ETF's price sits in its own 52-week high/low range
XLK at +0.54 means Technology is 77% of the way from its 52-week low to its high
Relative Score (vs SPY)
Same calculation applied to the ETF÷SPY price ratio
XLK at +0.58 relative means it's outperforming SPY and near the top of that outperformance range
Reading the Scatter Chart
The chart plots Absolute Score on the X-axis and Relative Score on the Y-axis. This creates four quadrants:
↖ Top-Left: Oversold + Outperforming
Cheap but showing relative strength vs SPY. Often the most interesting quadrant for new positions.
↗ Top-Right: Overbought + Outperforming
Strong and expensive. Momentum is positive but be aware of potential mean reversion.
↙ Bottom-Left: Oversold + Underperforming
Weak and cheap. Could be contrarian value, or a falling knife — context matters.
↘ Bottom-Right: Overbought + Underperforming
Expensive but losing relative strength. Potential trim or rotation candidate.
Using the Tails
The tail feature is what makes this tool most actionable. When you select a tail length (4, 6, 8, 10, or 12 weeks), each checked ETF shows a trailing path of its weekly score positions. This reveals the direction of travel — not just where something is, but where it's heading.
Key insight: An ETF moving from the bottom-left toward the top-right is gaining both absolute and relative strength — that's a momentum signal. An ETF moving from top-right toward bottom-left is weakening on both fronts — potential distribution.
Seasonality Tab
Shows this year's performance so far (rebased to 0% at Jan 1) alongside the average seasonal path over the last 25 years. Click any line in the top chart to add its long-run seasonal average to the bottom chart — useful for spotting whether an ETF is running ahead of, or behind, its typical pattern for this time of year. Dashed vertical lines mark average month-end points so the two charts stay aligned.
Important: Seasonality shows historical averages, not predictions. Any single year can and does deviate from the average — treat it as context, not a signal on its own.
Two Tabs
Tab
Coverage
Best For
Sectors
12 S&P 500 sector ETFs (XLK, XLF, XLE, etc.)
Sector rotation decisions — where to overweight/underweight
Style/factor tilts — growth vs value, large vs small, US vs international
Practical Workflow
1. Start with the table. Sort by Relative Score to see which areas are most oversold or overbought vs the S&P 500. Green cells = oversold (opportunity), red cells = overbought (caution).
2. Check interesting ETFs. Select the ones you want to compare on the scatter chart. Use Select All to see the full picture, or pick a focused set.
3. Turn on tails. Start with 4 weeks for recent momentum, extend to 8–12 weeks for the bigger trend. Watch for ETFs crossing quadrant boundaries — that's where the signal is strongest.
4. Compare tabs. The Sectors tab shows where capital is flowing within the market. The Factors tab shows which investment styles are in or out of favor.
Important: Scores can remain extremely overbought or oversold for extended periods. These are positioning signals to inform allocation decisions — they are not precise timing signals. Patience and context are required.
Data & Refresh
Price data comes from Yahoo Finance. Scores are computed using a rolling 52-week lookback window. Data refreshes automatically after US market close (3:40 PM CT on trading days). Cached results load instantly on repeat visits. Seasonality data is refreshed separately (roughly monthly) since it requires a much larger historical download.